San Francisco keeps writing headlines. A 1925 Tudor Revival in St. Francis Wood just closed $2,115,000 over asking — 47% above list — after 13 days on market. Nineteen single-family homes priced at $3 million or more went into contract in a single week, the highest number local brokers say they have ever seen. And a 25-year Sotheby’s veteran just called this the hottest San Francisco market of her career.

Underneath the headlines, the August closing data tells a steadier story: sellers firmly in charge of single-family homes, condos sitting near balance, and a co-op market too small to read much into. Here is the full picture.

Single-family homes: sellers still command 123% of list

August closings for San Francisco single-family homes show a market that still belongs to sellers — even as the median sold price cooled from July’s pace.

Single-family indicator	August 2026	Change vs. July
Median sold price	$1,700,000	-6.7%
Sold-to-list price ratio	123.3%	+1.1 pts
Months of inventory	1.29	-16.2%
Median days to pending	28	-3.4%
New listings	187	-14.2%
New pending sales	177	+16.4%
Median active list price	$1,585,000	+6.0%

The California Association of Realtors’ county-level read adds context: the detached-home median was $1,875,000 in August — down 8.5% from July but up 25% from a year ago — on just 1.3 months of unsold inventory and a median 34 days on market.

The takeaway: fewer new listings met more pending sales, and buyers paid an average of 23% over asking to win. That is not a cooling market; it is a competitive one with a thinner bench of inventory.

Condos: balanced and steady

San Francisco condos, townhouses, and apartments sit close to balance — the segment where buyers have the most breathing room in the city right now.

Condo indicator	August 2026	Change vs. July
Median sold price	$1,160,500	-3.3%
Sold-to-list price ratio	106.0%	+0.5 pts
Months of inventory	2.38	-6.3%
Median days to pending	45	+10.0%
New listings	230	+5.5%

At 106% of list, well-priced condos still draw competition — but 45 median days to pending and 2.38 months of inventory mean buyers can actually deliberate. New listings rose 5.5% while the median estimated value held 10.6% above last year at $1,146,420.

Co-ops: a tiny market, read with caution

Just three co-op sales closed in August (median $1,240,000, 101% of list, 95 median days). With numbers that small, month-to-month swings say more about which units traded than about the market itself. Noted here for completeness — not for conclusions.

The luxury tier is on fire

The most striking signal this week came from the top of the market. A broker’s weekly sales-meeting recap reports 19 San Francisco single-family homes priced at $3 million or more went into contract — “the highest number we’ve seen” — with 100% of the single-family homes that went pending last week doing so within 30 days. Inventory sits roughly 27% ahead of last year, and 160 units were absorbed in a single week. (Source: LinkedIn — San Francisco Real Estate Update: Luxury Demand Hits Record)

The New York Post (October 2, 2026) adds the why: Sotheby’s veteran Annie Williams calls this the hottest San Francisco market in her 25 years, driven by new AI wealth trading wine cellars for saunas and chasing warm woods and calm, light-filled rooms over smart-home tech.

Overbid of the week: St. Francis Wood

This 1925 Tudor Revival in St. Francis Wood listed at $4,495,000 and closed at $6,610,000 after just 13 days on market — $2,115,000 over asking, 47% above list. (Source: The Front Steps, October 2, 2026)

Pricing strategy is everything in this market. The headline number is never the whole story — the details are where value is won or lost.

What These Numbers Mean for Your Property

For buyers

In single-family, assume competition: 123% of list was the August average, and well-priced homes are pending in under a month. Come pre-approved, keep contingencies tight, and let your agent read the pricing strategy — the list price is often the starting bid, not the price. In condos, you have more leverage: use the 45-day median pace to negotiate thoughtfully rather than rushing.

For sellers

This is a pricing-strategy market, not a test-the-ceiling market. The St. Francis Wood result came from pricing that invited competition — 13 days, 47% over. Overprice and you sit; price to the market’s logic and the market bids it up. With inventory 27% ahead of last year at the top end, presentation and positioning separate the record-setters from the stale listings.

For trustees, executors, and family fiduciaries

Estate timelines rarely align with market momentum, which is exactly why the data matters: a documented 123% sold-to-list ratio and record luxury absorption support defensible valuations for trust and probate properties — and protect fiduciaries who price to the evidence rather than to sentiment. If you are administering an estate with San Francisco real property, get a current, data-backed valuation before you decide between listing, holding, or distributing.

Frequently asked questions

Is San Francisco a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?

For single-family homes, firmly a seller’s market: 1.29 months of inventory and 123% average sold-to-list. Condos are near balance at 2.38 months of inventory — the most buyer-friendly segment in the city.

Are San Francisco home prices still rising?

Year over year, yes: the detached-home median is up 25% from August 2025 ($1,875,000), and RPR’s estimated values are up 14.6% for single-family and 10.6% for condos. Month to month, August medians cooled from July — normal late-summer seasonality, not a turn.

What is driving the luxury surge?

New AI wealth, per the New York Post‘s October 2 reporting: 19 homes at $3M+ went into contract in one week, a record, with every pending single-family home going under contract within 30 days.

How fast are well-priced homes selling?

Single-family: a median 28 days to pending. The standouts move far faster — the St. Francis Wood Tudor closed in 13 days at 47% over asking.

Should I wait for more inventory?

Single-family inventory is thin and falling (-16% month over month). Waiting for meaningful relief has not paid this year; waiting with a clear pricing strategy has.

Sources and methodology

• Realtors Property Resource (RPR) Market Activity and Market Trends reports for San Francisco, California — single-family, condo/townhouse, and co-op — data month August 2026, pulled October 1, 2026. RPR notes some brokerages may not include MLS content; figures reflect available listing and public-records data.
• California Association of Realtors, San Francisco County Market Update — Trends at a Glance, August 2026 (car.org/marketdata).
• The Front Steps, “Overbid” — October 2, 2026 (thefrontsteps.com).
• LinkedIn — “San Francisco Real Estate Update: Luxury Demand Hits Record” (link).
• New York Post, “AI execs flock to San Francisco for low-tech homes” — October 2, 2026 (nypost.com).

Disclaimer: Data is taken from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors and omissions. ©2020 All rights reserved

Contact Catherine Bassick for a confidential valuation of your San Francisco property — one conversation, grounded in this week’s data, about what your home is worth and how to time your move.

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